Halifax HPI

    • Prices in the three months to October were 9.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier

 

    • House prices in the latest three months (August-October) were 2.8% higher than in the preceding three months

Halifax

 

Commenting, Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said:

“House prices in the three months to October were 2.8% higher than in the previous three months. This was slightly above the average of 2.5% on this measure over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate increased from 8.6% in September to 9.7%.

“Improving economic conditions and household finances, together with sustained low mortgage rates, have boosted housing demand during 2015. Strengthening demand is filtering through in to higher sales levels although the ongoing shortage of supply is acting as a significant constraint on activity. “The imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist over the coming months, maintaining upward pressure on house prices.”

 

Key Facts

 

House Prices

• House prices in the latest three months (August-October) were 2.8% higher than in the preceding three months (May-July). The quarterly rate of change increased from September’s 2.0%; a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year.

• Prices in the three months to October were 9.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This was higher than September’s 8.6%, and the highest since August 2014 (9.7%).

• House prices rose by 1.1% between September and October. This followed last month’s fall of 0.9%, continuing the volatility seen in recent months. The quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

• House price optimism (HPO*) remains high (+63 in Q3 from +64 in Q2). Over two-thirds (68%) of Britons expect average property prices to be higher in 12 months’ time with just 5% expecting it to be lower, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker.

*HPO is calculated as the net balance of the % of respondents that expect the average UK house price to rise over the next 12 months less those that expect house prices to fall.

Housing Activity

• Home sales increased again in September. UK home sales increased by 1% between August and September, to 106,030. This was the second successive monthly rise. Sales in the three months to September were 4.4% higher than in the preceding three months. (Source: HMRC, seasonally adjusted figures)

• Mortgage approvals on an upward trend despite falling in September. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – increased by 4% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 despite a 2.5% decline in September. Approvals in the three months to September were 10% higher than in the same three months last year. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

• Supply remains at a record low. New instructions by home sellers declined in September for the eighth successive month. This contributed to the stock of homes available for sale remaining at record low levels. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly report

 

You can also read the comment and views about this HPI by Founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, Russell Quirk here. 

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